Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,777$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(696 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,277.0}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,277.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105.9\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $515$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $68,451$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,639.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(93,639.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,333$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(872 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,154.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,154.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $63,118$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,879$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,416.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 32.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,416.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $250$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(86.1 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238.0}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(238.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $491$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,214$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,112.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,112.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $328$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(88.9 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(323.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $286$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $12,968$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(3.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,361.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 42.8)}}\) (asimptote \(12,361.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $605$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(189 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{587.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(587.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $514$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,842$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(770 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,808.3}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,808.3\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.98 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.1}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 22.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,427$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,003.5}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59,003.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,747$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,490.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,490.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,696$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $314,160$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(5.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{303,656.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.6)}}\) (asimptote \(303,656.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $43,815$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(8.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,692.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,692.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $268,975$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,578$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,568.8}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,568.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,767$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(8.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,762.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,762.6\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,563$ on 2020-06-30
